investor behavior Archives - Everyday Software, Everyday Joyhttps://business-service.2software.net/tag/investor-behavior/Software That Makes Life FunSat, 08 Aug 2026 13:01:17 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3Animal Spirits: The Second Wave – A Wealth of Common Sensehttps://business-service.2software.net/animal-spirits-the-second-wave-a-wealth-of-common-sense/https://business-service.2software.net/animal-spirits-the-second-wave-a-wealth-of-common-sense/#respondSat, 08 Aug 2026 13:01:17 +0000https://business-service.2software.net/?p=24403What happens when the headlines stay scary, but markets start acting hopeful? That’s the “second wave” of animal spiritswhen fear morphs into debate, FOMO, and shaky confidence. Inspired by the Animal Spirits episode “The Second Wave” from A Wealth of Common Sense, this guide breaks down how investor emotions shape markets, why markets can look forward while life feels stuck, and how to respond without panic. You’ll get a common-sense framework built on asset allocation, diversification, and rule-based rebalancingplus real-world style scenarios that show how second-wave mistakes happen (and how to avoid them). If you want investing advice that’s realistic, a little funny, and built to survive uncertainty, start here.

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If you’ve ever looked at your brokerage account and thought, “Why are you acting like this?”congratulations.
You’ve met the main character of today’s story: animal spirits.

“Animal spirits” is the polite, economist-approved way to say that markets aren’t run by spreadsheets alone.
They’re run by peoplepeople who drink too much coffee, doomscroll headlines, and occasionally make financial
decisions with the emotional maturity of a golden retriever spotting a squirrel.

In the Animal Spirits universe (the investing podcast hosted by Ben Carlson of
A Wealth of Common Sense and Michael Batnick), the episode titled
“The Second Wave” captures a moment that still feels like a masterclass in real-world market
psychology: the weird stretch where the world looked broken, the economy looked bruised, and yet markets started
behaving like they’d already found a reason to hope.

Disclaimer: Educational content only. Not financial advice.

What “Animal Spirits” Actually Means (Yes, Your Portfolio Has Feelings)

In finance and behavioral economics, animal spirits refers to the emotions that shape decision-making:
confidence, fear, hope, pessimism, and the occasional irrational burst of “I should totally buy this because I saw
a thread about it.”

When animal spirits are high, people take risks, invest, hire, expand, and spend. When they’re low, the same people
clutch cash like it’s the last bottle of water in a zombie movieoften even if fundamentals are improving.
In other words: markets and economies don’t just respond to numbers; they respond to narratives.

This is why two investors can read the same headline and do opposite things. One sees “uncertainty” and sells.
Another sees “uncertainty” and buys. Neither of them is purely rational. They’re both human.

The Second Wave: When Bad News Becomes… Normal News

The phrase “second wave” can mean a lot of things, but in the context of that Animal Spirits episode, it points to a
particularly disorienting phase: the first shock hits, panic peaks, and then the world enters a new chapter where
fear doesn’t disappearit changes shape.

During the early COVID era, the U.S. saw historically brutal employment numbers. In April 2020, the unemployment rate
jumped to 14.7%, the highest in the modern BLS data series, reflecting the scale of the shutdown.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve moved aggressively to support credit markets and keep financial plumbing from
freezing up.

The weird partemotionally and financiallywas how quickly markets could begin to look forward while daily life still
looked backward. That’s the “second wave” feeling: the market stops reacting to yesterday’s shock and starts reacting
to tomorrow’s possibilities… even when tomorrow is still blurry.

Why that moment matters beyond 2020

You don’t need a pandemic to get a “second wave.” You just need a major market event:
a crash, a rate shock, a banking scare, an election surprise, a geopolitical flare-upanything that yanks investor
emotions from “steady” to “feral.”

First wave: panic, forced selling, worst-case scenarios, “this time is different.”
Second wave: arguments, second-guessing, FOMO, moral outrage, and the temptation to make a permanent plan out of a
temporary feeling.

Inside “The Second Wave”: The Questions Everyone Asks (But Rarely Answers Well)

The episode description reads like a time capsule of what investors were trying to process: the path to normalcy,
an economy operating at partial capacity, when people would start flying again, anger about bailouts, weird real estate
trends, and concerns about collegesplus everything else that shows up when uncertainty moves in and refuses to pay rent.

Those themes weren’t just “current events.” They were a real-time tour of how people build market narratives.
And those narratives drive behavioroften faster than fundamentals do.

1) “When does normal come back?” (a forecast disguised as a coping strategy)

Investors love clarity the way kids love bedtime stories: it helps everyone calm down. But markets don’t wait for
perfect clarity. They move when the direction becomes more believable than the disaster.

The second-wave mistake is thinking you must predict the exact path to normalcy to invest successfully. You don’t.
You need a plan that can survive a range of outcomes.

2) “Why are people so angry about bailouts?” (morality meets market reality)

Anger is a powerful emotion, and it tends to demand action. In markets, that action often looks like:
“I’m selling because this is unfair,” or “I’m buying because the government will backstop everything.”

But outragewhether justified or notis a terrible portfolio manager. It’s loud, impatient, and allergic to nuance.
A common-sense approach acknowledges the policy environment without letting emotion turn you into a full-time trader
of moral opinions.

3) “Why is real estate acting weird?” (the trap of ‘obvious’ conclusions)

“If offices empty out, commercial real estate must collapse.”
“If people leave cities, suburbs must soar forever.”
“If mortgage rates drop, housing will only go up.”

The second-wave period is when these neat stories feel irresistible. But markets tend to punish neat stories.
Real estate is local, slow-moving, and tangled up with credit conditions, demographics, and policymeaning your “obvious”
trade can stay “obvious” while your patience account goes bankrupt.

The Common-Sense Playbook: Invest Like You Don’t Need to Be Right on Schedule

The most durable investing strategies don’t require you to nail the headline cycle. They require you to manage risk,
stay diversified, and keep your behavior from sabotaging your math.

Start with asset allocation (a boring decision that saves your future self)

Asset allocation is simply how you divide your portfolio among stocks, bonds, cash, and other assets. The key point:
the “best” mix depends on time horizon and risk tolerance.

Translation: if a 20% drop makes you feel like your soul left your body, you may be taking more risk than you can
actually carry. That’s not a character flawit’s a portfolio design issue.

Diversify like you mean it (not like a motivational poster)

Diversification isn’t exciting. It’s the financial equivalent of eating vegetables.
You don’t do it because it’s fun; you do it because you’d like to keep functioning.

The goal isn’t to “win big.” The goal is to avoid getting wrecked by a single betone sector, one stock, one theme,
one country, or one extremely convincing influencer with a ring light.

Rebalancing: your built-in “buy low, sell high” without the ego

A second-wave environment often produces lopsided portfolios. One asset rips higher while another looks like it
needs a nap and a therapist.

Rebalancing means trimming what has grown outsized and adding to what has fallen below your targetson purpose,
on schedule, with rules. It’s not a prediction. It’s maintenance.

Keep cash for life, not for timing

Cash has a job: emergency needs, near-term expenses, and peace of mind. When people hold cash to “wait for the perfect
moment,” they often discover that the perfect moment is shy and refuses to appear when invited.

In second-wave markets, the biggest regret is often not lossesit’s missing the recovery because you were waiting for
the headline that says, “All clear, dear investor, you may now proceed.” That headline doesn’t exist.

How to “Read the Room” Without Letting the Room Control You

Investor sentiment matters. But sentiment is best used as a context, not a command.

Here are common second-wave sentiment signalsand what a common-sense investor does with them:

  • Volatility spikes: It means uncertainty is loud. It does not automatically mean “sell everything.”
    It means review risk, check liquidity, and avoid impulse moves.
  • Angry narratives everywhere: Anger often rises when outcomes feel unfair. Acknowledge it, but don’t
    turn it into a trading strategy.
  • “This market makes no sense!”: Markets can diverge from the economy because markets are discounting
    mechanisms, not sympathy machines.
  • FOMO returns: When fear flips to greed, people chase. This is when sticking to your plan becomes
    more valuable than being “right.”

A Second-Wave Checklist You Can Actually Use

If you want a practical, repeatable way to handle second-wave markets, use this checklist before you change anything:

  1. Can I explain this move in one sentence without using the word “vibes”?
  2. Does this change match my time horizon? (Goals in 10–30 years shouldn’t be managed like goals in 10–30 days.)
  3. Am I reacting to headlines or adjusting a long-term plan?
  4. Is my portfolio still aligned with my risk tolerance?
  5. Do I have enough diversification? (Not “many holdings,” but truly different sources of risk.)
  6. Am I trying to be smartor trying to feel less anxious?

The final question is the most important, because anxiety can disguise itself as “research.”
You can read 47 articles, watch 12 videos, and still be making a feelings-based decisionjust with better vocabulary.

Conclusion: The Second Wave Ends When You Stop Needing the Perfect Story

“The Second Wave” is a reminder that markets don’t just move on earnings and GDP. They move on belief, fear, policy,
hope, and whatever collective mood is trending that week. That’s animal spirits in action.

The common-sense response isn’t to pretend emotion doesn’t exist. It’s to build a system that assumes emotion will
show upsometimes loudlyand still keeps you invested, diversified, and oriented toward your goals.

Because the truth is: you don’t need to predict the next wave. You need a plan that floats.

Experience Appendix: “The Second Wave” in Real Life (500+ Words of What It Feels Like)

I can’t claim personal war stories (I’m software, not someone with a brokerage app and a pulse), but “second wave”
markets create patterns that show up again and again in real investors’ experiences. Below are a few realistic
scenarioscomposites of the kinds of situations people describe to advisors, write about in investing communities,
or quietly relive at 2:00 a.m. while staring at a chart.

1) The Reopening Optimist Who Bought the Headline

In the first wave, this investor panicked and sold after the drop. Then the market rebounded while the news stayed grim.
The second wave arrived as a sudden personality change: fear turned into urgency. “I have to get back in before it’s too late.”
They bought aggressively on a day when the market popped after a hopeful announcement.

The problem wasn’t buying. The problem was buying as revenge against missing out. When volatility returned,
they felt tricked and sold againlocking in a classic two-step: sell low, buy high, sell lower, repeat until emotionally exhausted.
The lesson: when your motivation is “I can’t be wrong again,” you’re not investingyou’re negotiating with your ego.

2) The Cash Hoarder Waiting for “Certainty”

Another investor didn’t sell, but they froze. Every paycheck went to cash because the world felt unstable.
They weren’t irrationallife was genuinely uncertain. But in second-wave markets, “waiting for clarity” can become a habit.
Each time prices rose, they told themselves it was a fake-out. Each time prices fell, they told themselves it could fall more.

Eventually, the market climbed far enough that re-entering felt scarylike boarding a moving train. They stayed in cash longer,
not because it was optimal, but because it had become emotionally comfortable.
The lesson: cash is useful for near-term needs, but it’s expensive as a permanent hiding place.

3) The Moral Outrage Trader

Second-wave environments are full of debates about fairness: bailouts, winners vs. losers, who gets helped, who gets left behind.
This investor had strong views and tried to express them through tradesshorting what felt “propped up,” buying what felt “deserving,”
and rotating constantly as the narrative shifted.

The stress level was high because markets don’t pay you for being morally coherent. They pay you for being right at the right time,
with the right sizing, and the right risk management. Being correct in principle doesn’t protect you from getting squeezed by price action.
The lesson: it’s okay to care deeply about policy and fairness; it’s not okay to let anger become your asset allocation.

4) The Theme-Chaser Who Confused a Trend With a Guarantee

Work-from-home, e-commerce, “everyone’s leaving cities,” “no one will fly again,” “housing will crash,” “housing will boom”
second-wave markets produce powerful trend stories. This investor picked one trend and built a concentrated portfolio around it.
For a while, it worked. Then the story got crowded, prices ran ahead of reality, and the trade stopped paying.

The emotional whiplash was the real cost: when you invest like a headline, you’re forced to update your portfolio every time the headline updates.
The lesson: trends can be real and still be overpriced; diversification exists because the future is a terrible employee with perfect attendance and zero reliability.

5) The Boring Rebalancer Who Slept Better Than Everyone Else

This investor didn’t predict much. They had a written plan, a diversified mix, and a rule-based rebalancing schedule.
When stocks fell sharply, their portfolio hurtbut it didn’t break. When stocks rallied, they didn’t suddenly become a genius.
They rebalanced calmly, added to what was down, trimmed what was up, and kept saving.

Their secret wasn’t courage. It was structure. A process that didn’t require daily emotional heroics.
The lesson: the goal is not to be fearless. The goal is to be prepared enough that fear doesn’t get a vote.

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Some Market Myths That Hurt Investorshttps://business-service.2software.net/some-market-myths-that-hurt-investors/https://business-service.2software.net/some-market-myths-that-hurt-investors/#respondMon, 23 Feb 2026 00:02:10 +0000https://business-service.2software.net/?p=7842Market myths can quietly destroy long-term returns. This in-depth guide unpacks the most damaging investing misconceptionsfrom market timing and diversification myths to fee blindness, tax mistakes, and social-media hype. You’ll learn why waiting for the perfect entry often backfires, how costs and behavior compound over decades, what SIPC protection actually covers, and how to build a resilient portfolio process you can follow in bull and bear markets. With practical examples, plain-English explanations, and a fun but grounded tone, this article helps you replace emotional decisions with an evidence-based strategy. If you want smarter investing outcomes without chasing every headline, start here.

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Investing would be easier if money came with a simple instruction label: “Do this, retire happy, avoid panic.” Instead, investors get mythssticky, dramatic, and often expensive. These myths spread because they sound smart at parties, look convincing in short market windows, and tap straight into our emotions: fear, greed, and the deep human need to feel “in control” of chaos.

This guide breaks down the most common market myths that quietly sabotage portfolios. It synthesizes practical lessons from U.S. investor-protection agencies, major broker education centers, and long-horizon market research. The goal is not to make you a day-trading superhero in a hoodie. The goal is better: help you build a durable investing process that works when headlines are loud, your group chat is confident, and your emotions are doing cartwheels.

Along the way, we’ll translate jargon into plain English, use real-world examples, and keep it funbecause if we can laugh at bad investing habits, we can fix them faster.

Why Market Myths Spread So Easily

Before we debunk anything, it helps to understand why myths stick:

  • They reward hindsight: After a move happens, everyone “knew it.”
  • They flatter ego: “I outsmarted the market” feels better than “I followed a boring plan.”
  • They sell certainty: “This stock can’t miss” is emotionally easier than “returns are probabilistic.”
  • They go viral: Social media rewards confidence and speed, not careful risk management.

In short, myths feel exciting. Good investing often feels… suspiciously normal. That mismatch is exactly why myths hurt.

Myth #1: “I Can Time the Market If I’m Careful”

Reality: You usually miss rebounds while trying to dodge drops.

Market timing sounds logical: sell before declines, buy before recoveries. The problem is execution. Major up days often arrive close to major down days, which means stepping out “for safety” can cost more than the volatility you were trying to avoid.

If you miss a handful of strong recovery days, your long-term return can fall dramatically. That’s why disciplined participation typically beats tactical jumping in and out. Think of market timing like trying to catch a train that changes platforms every ten seconds while blindfolded. You might get lucky once. You won’t build a retirement plan on luck.

Myth #2: “I’ll Wait for a Perfect Entry Point”

Reality: Waiting in cash has an opportunity cost.

“I’ll invest when the market feels safer” is understandableand expensive when repeated. Research on lump-sum versus staged entry generally finds that investing earlier tends to outperform waiting in cash over long horizons. Not always, but often enough to matter.

Does that mean dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is bad? Not at all. DCA can reduce emotional stress and help people actually stick with the plan. But if your alternative is “do nothing indefinitely,” then even a simple, structured entry plan is usually better than permanent hesitation.

Myth #3: “Diversification Is Just ‘Diworsification’”

Reality: Diversification reduces uncompensated risk.

Some investors mistake diversification for dilution. If one concentrated bet rockets, diversified portfolios can look “boring.” But markets move in regimes. Leadership rotates. Sectors cool. Countries take turns. What feels slow in one phase can feel protective in the next.

Diversification is less about maximizing this quarter’s bragging rights and more about lowering the odds that one bad thesis wrecks your future. Owning multiple asset categoriesand diversifying within each categoryhelps smooth the ride and protects decision quality during turbulence.

Myth #4: “Great Active Managers Consistently Beat Index Funds”

Reality: Persistence is rarer than marketing suggests.

Can active managers outperform? Absolutelysome do, for some periods. The myth is assuming most will, consistently, after fees and over long horizons. Broad scorecards repeatedly show many active funds trailing their benchmarks over time.

This doesn’t mean “never use active funds.” It means you should demand a strong reason, understand the odds, and control costs. The burden of proof should be on complexity, not simplicity.

Myth #5: “Fees Are Tiny, So They Don’t Matter”

Reality: Small percentages become large dollars through compounding.

Investors often obsess over return forecasts and ignore fee certainty. But fees are one of the few variables you can control. A seemingly small annual expense gap can snowball over decades, especially in tax-advantaged accounts where capital compounds for years.

Think of fees as a silent subscription you never canceled. It renews every year, whether your portfolio is up, down, or taking a nap. Lower costs won’t guarantee outperformance, but they improve your odds before the race even starts.

Myth #6: “Cash Is Always Safe”

Reality: Cash is stable in price, not in purchasing power.

Cash has a job: liquidity, emergency reserves, and short-term spending needs. But treating cash as a long-term growth engine can quietly erode real wealth when inflation rises faster than your yield.

The smarter framing is role-based money: emergency cash for resilience, invested assets for growth, and short-duration reserves for near-term goals. “All cash forever” is not conservative; it is often just slow-motion loss of purchasing power.

Myth #7: “High Dividend Yield Means Low Risk”

Reality: Yield can signal valueor distress.

Dividends are great. Dividend obsession is dangerous. A high yield may come from a falling stock price, and payouts can be cut when fundamentals deteriorate. Focusing only on yield can lead investors into concentrated sector exposure, value traps, or poor total return outcomes.

Evaluate the full picture: payout ratio, balance sheet strength, cash flow durability, and diversification. Income matters, but total return keeps the lights on in retirement.

Myth #8: “Taxes Are a Year-End Problem, Not an Investing Problem”

Reality: Tax rules shape real returns all year.

After-tax return is what you keep. Investors who ignore taxes may accidentally create avoidable drag: frequent short-term gains, bad lot selection, and wash-sale mistakes that block loss deductions.

Basic tax awareness can improve outcomes without changing your risk profile. Know holding periods, understand where assets live (taxable vs. tax-advantaged), and harvest losses carefully. It’s not about gaming the system; it’s about not donating returns to avoidable friction.

Myth #9: “My Brokerage Insurance Covers Market Losses”

Reality: Protection covers custody failure, not bad investments.

Many investors confuse account protection with investment guarantees. SIPC protection generally addresses broker-dealer failure and missing securities/cash up to statutory limits. It does not reimburse you because your stock dropped 40% after earnings.

That distinction is crucial. Risk management still comes from asset allocation, diversification, position sizing, and behaviornot from assuming a safety net that was never designed for market volatility.

Myth #10: “Finfluencers and Viral Tips Are a Shortcut to Alpha”

Reality: Fast tips often carry slow regrets.

Social media can be useful for awareness, but terrible as a substitute for due diligence. Scams frequently mimic credible voices, promise huge returns, and rush people into action. That urgency is a red flag, not an edge.

If someone offers “guaranteed” high returns with low risk, that’s not a signalit’s a warning sign wearing expensive sunglasses. Verify registrations, check disciplinary history, and assume screenshots are marketing, not proof.

Myth #11: “I Need the Perfect Portfolio Before I Start”

Reality: A good plan started today beats a perfect plan delayed forever.

Perfectionism is procrastination in formal wear. Most wealth is built through boring consistency: automated contributions, diversified exposure, periodic rebalancing, and behavior control.

Your portfolio does not need to be cinematic. It needs to be survivable. If your strategy only works when conditions are ideal, it’s not a strategyit’s a mood.

How to Build an Anti-Myth Investing System

1) Write a one-page investing policy.

Define your goals, time horizon, target allocation, contribution schedule, and rebalancing rules. When panic hits, you follow the document, not the feed.

2) Automate contributions.

Automation turns discipline from a decision into a default. This reduces emotional market timing and “I’ll start next month” drift.

3) Use broad, low-cost diversification.

You don’t need 47 funds. You need intentional exposure across assets that behave differently under different conditions.

4) Rebalance on a schedule, not a vibe.

Periodic rebalancing helps you trim winners and add to laggards without making dramatic predictions.

5) Protect your behavior from your emotions.

Create guardrails: wait 24 hours before making large moves, avoid portfolio-checking marathons during volatility, and keep a “why I own this” note for each major holding.

6) Verify professionals and claims.

Use regulator tools to check registration and history before taking advice. Trust is good; verification is cheaper.

Conclusion

Most investors are not defeated by markets; they’re defeated by myths about markets. The recurring pattern is simple: chasing certainty, reacting emotionally, underestimating costs, and overestimating forecasting skill. The antidote is also simple: diversify intelligently, control fees and taxes, stay invested through noise, and follow a written process.

You don’t need prophetic talent. You need a repeatable system that works on ordinary days and chaotic days alike. If myths sell excitement, evidence sells enduranceand endurance is what compounds.

Experience Section: What These Myths Look Like in Real Life (Extended 500+ Words)

Experience #1: The “I’ll Wait Until Things Calm Down” Trap
A friend of minelet’s call him Aaronkept a six-figure sum in cash for almost two years because “the market was weird.” To be fair, the market was weird. It usually is. Every month he planned to invest, then postponed because a new headline showed up: inflation fears, rate fears, election fears, “this one indicator that no one understands but everyone shares.” Eventually he entered after a rally, felt late, and started second-guessing again. His real problem wasn’t timing skill; it was decision fatigue. Once he switched to a monthly auto-invest plan and stopped seeking the “all clear” signal, his stress dropped. His returns improved not because he became smarter overnight, but because he stopped demanding perfect timing from an imperfect world.

Experience #2: The Concentration Hangover
I’ve seen concentrated bets make people feel brilliantright until they don’t. One investor built 70% of a portfolio around one theme that had crushed it for years. For a while, every dinner conversation ended with “diversification is for people who don’t do research.” Then came a brutal drawdown. What hurt most wasn’t just the loss; it was the emotional freeze that followed. He couldn’t sell because that meant admitting he was wrong, and he couldn’t buy because confidence was gone. A diversified structure would not have prevented losses entirely, but it would have preserved decision flexibility. Concentration can multiply returns; it can also multiply regret.

Experience #3: The Fee Blind Spot
Another case: an investor who tracked every market move but never once compared expense ratios, advisory overlays, and transaction drag. On paper, the strategy looked “active and sophisticated.” In practice, fees quietly consumed a meaningful slice of annual return. After a full review, the portfolio didn’t need a dramatic overhauljust simplification. Lower-cost core holdings, fewer overlapping funds, cleaner account structure. The lesson was almost funny in retrospect: we obsess over uncertain alpha and ignore certain costs. It’s like trying to lose weight while pretending nightly dessert calories are “too small to matter.” Tiny daily leaks sink big long-term goals.

Experience #4: Social Proof, Then Social Pain
During a speculative wave, I watched several first-time investors follow viral tips from anonymous accounts and influencer clips. The pattern was familiar: flashy gains posted publicly, risks discussed privately (if at all), and urgency in every message“buy now before institutions move.” People bought, screenshots flew, confidence rose, and then volatility hit. Some sold near lows because the same sources that told them to buy offered no risk framework when prices fell. The emotional whiplash was intense. The core issue wasn’t social media itself; it was outsourcing process to personalities. Information can come from anywhere. Discipline has to come from you.

Experience #5: The Boring Portfolio That Actually Worked
My favorite story is the least dramatic. A couple in their 30s set clear goals, kept an emergency fund, used diversified low-cost funds, automated contributions every paycheck, rebalanced twice a year, and ignored hot takes unless they affected their written plan. Did they beat every friend in every calendar year? No. Did they avoid panic decisions during ugly markets? Mostly yes. Over time, that mattered more than any single “big call.” Their system was not exciting enough for social media, but it was perfect for real life: stable, adaptable, and survivable. The takeaway is almost annoyingly simple: consistency is a competitive advantage because most people abandon it right when it starts to pay off.

If you see yourself in any of these stories, good news: you don’t need a new personality to become a better investor. You need better defaults. Replace prediction with process. Replace urgency with rules. Replace myth with evidence. That shift can change your financial trajectory more than any hot stock tip ever will.

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